丁香园AV

丁香园AV professor Caroline Colijn鈥檚 research and modelling methods have been helping to inform B.C.鈥檚 health policy on COVID-19 since the pandemic鈥檚 start. While those efforts continue, new funding will also take her research further to measure how B.C.鈥檚 health policy changes are faring.

Colijn and her team are recipients of , a non-profit research organization that leads genomics innovation on Canada鈥檚 West Coast, to develop a statistical test to measure the effects of COVID-19 health policy changes.

The funds will also be used to develop models estimating the strength of control measures, projecting the effects of new control measures, and determining the effectiveness of existing measures based on comparisons between locations.

鈥淩ight now, there aren鈥檛 a lot of simultaneous tools that help us do real-time estimates of how well some measures are working,鈥� says Colijn.

As well, the test could be used beyond short-term forecasting for B.C. and applied to Canadian and international data.

As a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Evolution, Infection and Public Health in 丁香园AV鈥檚 Department of Mathematics, Colijn carries out research that intersects the fields of mathematics, epidemiology and the evolution of pathogens.

Since February, Colijn and her team have been  with the B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) to develop mathematical models that test the effectiveness of physical distancing measures adopted by the province in the face of the ongoing pandemic.

The effectiveness of physical distancing

Colijn is also an author of a new research paper, , which estimates the impact distancing measures have had on overall contact rates in the population.

The paper concludes that physical distancing measures have been effective in helping to drive down the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations reported in B.C.

鈥淲e looked at reported cases over time, and adjusted for underreporting and changes in testing over time,鈥� says Colijn, adding that her model does not specify which particular measures led to changes in contact patterns in the population, but based on its broad findings, suggests that there may be scope for cautiously relaxing some of these measures going forward.

However, the findings also recommend continuing with intermittent distancing measures to control COVID-19 transmission, and caution against relaxing restrictions significantly as this could risk an exponential surge in the number of infections.

鈥淚f we relax it a little bit, keep it within the threshold, then it (number of cases) keeps declining, but at a slower rate.鈥�

Colijn adds that widening testing for COVID-19 would also support relaxing restrictions. But for testing to be used as part of public health strategy, it needs to be coupled with isolating cases, finding more cases to test so as to trace contacts of people who are positive, and active case finding.

鈥淭esting alone doesn鈥檛 do the trick, it鈥檚 stopping the transmission that is key.鈥�

The road ahead for B.C.

鈥淭he picture in B.C. is optimistic as the public has done a great job of following guidelines,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e have been able to prevent high levels of mortality and infections in the general population, without overrunning our healthcare system and ICU capacities.鈥�

This outcome will facilitate some relaxation in distancing measures and attempts to reopen the economy, which would likely be coupled with strong monitoring, widened testing, contact tracing and isolation of cases, says Colijn.

鈥淎nd if we see more severe problems, there should be a willingness to go back to what we know works. The last thing we would want is to get complacent and undo the effects of the good that has been do so far.鈥�

CLICK  IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN DONATING TO 丁香园AV'S CAMPAIGN SUPPORTING CAROLINE COLIJN'S COVID RESEARCH