丁香园AV

Synopsis

Following the success of the Specific Affect Coding System (SPAFF) in identifying positive and negative affect as strong predictors of dysfunctional marriage[1], it was desired to build a mathematical model which predicts the likelihood of divorce based on a sum of positive or negative affect. The proposed model uses time-dependent nonlinear coupled ODEs to track how positive and negative affect change the behaviour of spouses. Phase plane analysis is then employed to determine how steady state solutions (functional or dysfunctional marriages) evolve under perturbations. Finally, a series of 'marriage experiments' is carried out. In these, marital intervention is carried out with therapeutic goals informed by the mathematical model in addition to longitudinal studies. 

[1] Gottman, J. M., Murray, J. D., Swanson, C. C., Tyson, R., & Swanson, K. R. (2002). The mathematics of marriage: Dynamic nonlinear models. Cambridge, MA, US: MIT Press.